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The small probability of public relations and the big problem of the enterprise

  The fundamentals of the category largely determine the probability of success or failure. There is a classic multiple-choice question in
  statistics : a person is studying on the New York subway, do you think this person is more likely to be a learned person or an uneducated person? Most people would consider it a learned person. But from the point of view of scientific statistics, this answer is mostly wrong.
  Because, the core principle of “Bayesian theory”, which is the basis of statistics, is: the probability of an event occurring = the basic probability × the probability of the event itself. The people “on the New York subway” have the lowest income in the whole society. Under the premise of this basic probability, if you find someone with knowledge, the probability will naturally not be high.
  Another classic case: During World War II, the Allied Forces wanted to strengthen the defense capabilities of the aircraft. The military counted all the bullets returned to the plane and found that the wings had the most bullet holes and the fuselage and tail had the least bullet holes. Decision: Just strengthen the protection of the wings, because of the high hit rate. Everyone thought it was okay, and only one person objected at the time, Romanian-American statistician Professor Abraham Wald, who put forward a completely opposite point of view – the fuselage and tail should be strengthened with less hit rate. His reason is: fewer bullet holes does not mean that the bullet will not be shot, and it is more likely that once the bullet is hit, it will not come back. And the wing has a high rate of bullets and can fly back, which just means that it is not fatal. The military sent intelligence officers to investigate, and sure enough, on the damaged aircraft, it was found that the aircraft with too many bullets on the hood of the fuselage was damaged. This is also the base probability.
  Some people open restaurants and treat those who come to eat as gods, and they can adjust how they want to adjust, and as a result, the business is getting worse and worse. Why? Those who don’t think it tastes good may simply not come. There are always a small number of people who can give opinions, and the sample data they provide is likely to be the smallest problem in big data. The ones who really want to ask are precisely those who have no opinion.
  Ignoring the basic probability, getting a single data that is seriously biased and paranoid, and using it as a decision-making reference is meaningless.
  The success of an enterprise is determined by two probability factors: the basic probability of the industry and the probability of the enterprise itself. Category is the foundation and ceiling of the success of the enterprise. In a declining industry, it is even more difficult to stand out. The basic market of the category largely determines the probability of success or failure.
  Reese and Trout, well-known American marketing experts, believe that the underlying logic of categories is to meet customer needs—category docking needs. Consumers think in terms of categories and express themselves in terms of brands—Coke, Starbucks, Baidu. Coke = Coca-Cola, Starbucks = coffee, Baidu = search. The brand occupying/representing the category is the shortest path to capture the underlying needs of consumers. The brand is the tip of the iceberg, and the category is the whole iceberg – understand the category, and you can understand the business better.
  Category is not innate, it is only occupied by the creator – category is the result of the brand. The value of a business’s success lies in its brand = category. The faster this equal sign is drawn, the more valuable it is. The ability of enterprises to innovate and subdivide categories is the crudest and most direct way of expressing differentiation. Traffic occupies the channel, and the brand occupies the heart. The essence of traffic is buying and selling—buying traffic and selling goods. Only when an emotional connection is established beyond the product function and consumers are willing to pay a premium for the brand and pay for the brand, the enterprise has a real moat, which is also the value of building a brand. .
  According to the theory of marketing psychology, consumers can only remember up to seven brands under each category. Businesses need to find a place for their brand in a list of categories that users can remember. The benchmark for corporate positioning is category. For enterprises, it is difficult to enter the same functions and categories once consumers’ minds are saturated.
  Heinz M. Goldman, a famous American marketing expert, summed up in the book “Sales Skills – How to Win Customers” that the “AIDA” model of successful marketing is composed of attention, interest, etc. , desire (desire), action (action) four links, the product is not a competing product, the competition for attention itself is. Attention first comes from the needs of the category, followed by the presentation of media + traffic + content, and again the choice of the brand. That is, demand-search-interest-comparison-choice-purchase-evaluation-sharing-repurchase.
  How much is public relations, marketing, branding, and marketing improving the basic probability of categories? How much are you increasing your probability? How much has been trying to deal with small probabilities?

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