The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has a profound impact on the geopolitical landscape of “post-Soviet space”

  Reconstruction and the political, economic, security and even cultural integration of countries in the “post-Soviet space” are an important basis for Russia to pursue its status as a global power and achieve rejuvenation. To this end, Russia actively promotes cooperation with “post-Soviet space” countries under various mechanisms: militarily, the Collective Security The Eurasian Economic Union is a platform to build a unified market across Europe and Asia. However, the protracted Russian-Ukrainian conflict has made the geopolitical pattern of the “post-Soviet space” more complicated, and the pressure of internal differentiation has increased.
Regional security situation becomes more complex

  Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, NATO and Ukraine have been in constant fire, calling on Georgia, Moldova and other countries to open up a “second battlefield” for fighting against Russia. Georgia’s president and prime minister have stated on many occasions that Georgia does not intend to establish a “second battlefield” against Russia. In May, British Foreign Secretary Truss said that the United Kingdom was discussing with other NATO members the possibility of supplying weapons to Moldova. On June 23, the European Union announced that Moldova and Ukraine were officially listed as candidate countries. Moroccan President Sandu said that he is willing to pay all political costs for joining the EU. This means that Moldova may become another “anti-Russian pawn” in the Western geopolitical chess game. Moldova and Russia have complex historical entanglements. During the Soviet period, a large number of Russians moved to Transnistria, where large-scale industrialization was carried out. In September 1990, the “Republic of Transnistria” declared its independence, but so far it has not been recognized by the international community. Currently, the site maintains a de facto “independence” with Russian troops stationed here, as well as the largest ammunition depot in Eastern Europe left over from the Soviet era. In late April, the flames of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict spread to this place, and many explosions occurred here in succession. Russia accused Ukraine of launching terrorist attacks on pro-Russian areas, while Ukraine said the attack was “directed and performed by Russia”. In short, in Moldova, which borders Ukraine, the forces of all parties are intertwined, and the mutual game will continue to intensify.
  In September 2020, a war broke out between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the issue of the ownership of Nagorno-Karabakh (“Naka ​​region” for short), and the two sides finally reached a ceasefire under the mediation of Russia, and Azerbaijan regained some of its territory. In the Naka War, Russia provided only limited support to Armenia, which is also a member of the CSTO, and Azerbaijan received a large amount of military assistance from Turkey. After the ceasefire, Russia deployed peacekeeping troops in the Naka region, and the Russian garrison was regarded by Afghanistan as “Russia is on the side of Asia”. Now due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Russia has no time to take into account the Naka issue. Afghanistan is trying to take the opportunity to expand the area under its control with the support of Turkey. In March this year, Afghanistan and Asia clashed again in the Naka region. A put pressure on the sub-groups in the Karabakh area, shutting down the natural gas to the settlements several times, and deploying drones, publicly calling on the sub-groups to leave their settlements. At present, among the three Transcaucasian countries, Georgia broke out the “Five-Day War” with Russia in 2008, Azerbaijan has close ties with Turkey, Armenia is a member of the Russian-led Collective Security Organization and the Eurasian Economic Union, and is Russia’s only “Five-Day War” in the region. ally”. Regarding the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Ya has a cautious attitude and tries his best to avoid publicly expressing relevant positions. However, there are also voices in Asia saying that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine caused Russia’s strategic focus to shift from the Transcaucasus region, which objectively gave Azerbaijan an opportunity to take advantage of, and indirectly aggravated the tension in the region.
Regional economies hit

  For historical reasons, countries in the “post-Soviet space” are still more economically dependent on Russia. In particular, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia and Russia are members of the Eurasian Economic Union, and they have deep economic and trade cooperation and high dependence.
  The Russian-Ukrainian conflict affects the financial markets of the Central Asian countries. At the beginning of the conflict, the currencies of Russia’s neighboring countries depreciated sharply along with the ruble, and the inflation rate soared. In addition, Russia’s close economic ties with countries such as “post-Soviet space” are also reflected in labor migration. In 2021, 4.5 million, 2.4 million and 900,000 people from Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan will enter Russia for work purposes, including those who have signed formal labor contracts, as well as “gig workers” without formal contracts and unemployed workers personnel. According to World Bank data, in 2021, the total remittances from Russia to Ukraine, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan will account for 11%, 30% and 28% of the gross domestic product (GDP) of the three countries, respectively. Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Russia has been subject to severe economic sanctions from Western countries, resulting in a large number of unemployment among labor migrants from Central Asia and other countries. For these countries, the decline in remittances from expatriates has triggered an economic downturn, and labor returning from Russia has also put pressure on their job markets.
  While the increase in oil and gas prices has a certain positive impact on energy exporters such as Kazakhstan, the increase in commodity prices will eventually be transmitted to other commodities, leading to higher prices. According to local media reports, the inflation rate in Kazakhstan reached 14% in May, and the price of food products rose by 19%.

On June 15, 2022, French President Emmanuel Macron visited Moldova and met with President Sandu.
Central Asian countries are under heavy pressure in the game of great powers

  In the past 30 years, all the countries of Central Asia have strived to achieve a balance between different external forces, that is, to pursue a “pluralistic balance” foreign policy. The leaders of Central Asian countries are cautious on the issue of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and most of them hold a “vague neutral” position. On the one hand, due to historical reasons, Central Asian countries and Russia are inextricably linked in political, economic, military, cultural and other aspects, and they try to avoid publicly condemning Russia. On the other hand, these countries do not want to be tied to a “chariot” so that their economies are not affected by Western sanctions.
  It can be seen that the Central Asian countries are generally facing greater diplomatic pressure at present. Leaders of many Central Asian countries have made it clear that they will not recognize the independence of the “Donetsk People’s Republic” and “Luhansk People’s Republic”, respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity, provide humanitarian assistance to Ukraine, and take a relaxed attitude towards domestic pro-Ukraine rallies . But at the same time, these countries are also reluctant to sanction Russia. In the April 7 UN General Assembly vote on “suspending Russia’s membership in the UN Human Rights Council”, all Central Asian countries voted against, except Turkmenistan, which did not participate in the vote.
  With the development of the situation, the adjustment of relations between major powers has brought challenges for Central Asian countries to maintain a pluralistic and balanced policy. In April, US Deputy Secretary of State Uzra Zeya visited Kazakhstan and proposed that the US would continue to provide support to Kazakhstan’s “democratization process”. The two sides expressed that they will further carry out constructive cooperation and expand the “high-level strategic partnership”. In May, US Assistant Secretary of State Donald Lu visited Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kazakhstan, and specifically proposed to strengthen “common values”. Under pressure from the West, some people in Kazakhstan began to question the Russia-led CSTO and the Eurasian Economic Union.
  In mid-June, U.S. Central Command Commander Michael Currilu visited Central Asia and proposed to strengthen military cooperation with Central Asian countries. The European Union and Japan are also following the pace of the United States to expand their influence in Central Asia. Behind the series of actions is the strategic attempt of the United States to return to the hinterland of Eurasia and further contain Russia after its hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan. In the context of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the Central Asian countries are trying to continue to uphold the “plurality and balance” foreign policy, that is, while maintaining traditional friendly relations with Russia, they develop cooperative relations with Western countries, and at the same time cooperate with China, Iran, Turkey, India and other countries. Strengthen economic and trade exchanges and deepen cooperation in various fields.
Affect the stability of the Belarusian regime

  Belarus has always supported Russia’s “special military operation” against Ukraine, but has not sent troops to actually participate in the war. In February this year, Belarus allowed Russian troops to enter Ukraine through its territory to carry out “special military operations”, and allowed Russia to use its territory to launch missiles and organize air strikes against Ukraine.
  Belarus is therefore subject to Western sanctions. Western sanctions on the country’s mineral exports, financial industry and logistics industry have made it impossible for Belarusian companies to obtain loans through the banking system, and white goods are restricted when entering the railways and ports of EU countries, all of which have caused a considerable blow to its economy. .
  In the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Belarus is a staunch ally of Russia for special reasons. Since the presidential election of White in August 2020, its political situation has been turbulent for many times. President Lukashenko has supported Russia to defeat the attempts of domestic and foreign opposition forces to subvert his regime again and again, and stabilized the economic and social order.
  Since then, the integration process of Russia and Belarus has entered the “fast lane”. In November 2021, the presidents of the two countries signed a series of documents including the Union State Integration Decree. According to relevant documents, the establishment of an alliance between Russia and Belarus will not only mean economic integration, but the two sides will also strengthen coordination in all fields, including politics and defense.
  However, after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the close relationship with Russia also brought greater internal pressure to the Lukashenko regime. The White Opposition believes that the White leadership allowed Russian troops to enter Ukraine through White territory, which violated the provisions of the national constitution “prohibiting White from aggression against other countries from its territory”.
dream and reality

  On June 9, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s remarks when he attended the commemoration of the 350th anniversary of Peter the Great’s birth attracted attention. Putin said, “Peter the Great fought 21 years of war with Sweden, successfully regained and consolidated its territory, and now we shoulder the same responsibility.” During the reign of Peter the Great, Russia carried out all-round and effective reforms, rose to become a European power, and changed the country’s name to “Russian Empire”.
  Although from 1991 to 1993 at the beginning of the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Russia once regarded the CIS countries as a “burden”, but the Russian leadership soon adjusted its thinking and regarded it as the “top priority” of its foreign policy. In recent years, Putin has emphasized on various important occasions, “Russia and the relevant countries in the ‘post-Soviet space’ speak the same language, share a common history, and are essentially a common cultural space. No matter how the international situation changes, the common interests Sex will always prevail.”
  From the current point of view, the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict continues to spill over, making the political, economic, security and other aspects of the “post-Soviet space” more complicated, and the tendency of regional “reverse integration” may intensify. The international community should uphold the stance of encouraging talks and promoting peace, and strive to reach a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine.