Development of the global polysilicon industry in 2022
By the end of 2022, the global polysilicon effective production capacity will be 1.341 million tons per year, a year-on-year increase of 73.3%; in 2022, the global polysilicon production will be 1.001 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 55.9%. Among them, the output of electronic-grade polysilicon is about 39,200 tons, solar-grade bulk silicon is about 900,000 tons, and granular silicon is 61,600 tons, accounting for 3.9%, 89.9% and 6.2% of the total global polysilicon production, respectively.
In 2022, the global polysilicon production capacity will increase by 567,000 tons per year, including production resumption, expansion and commissioning of new projects. All new polysilicon factories will be in China.
In 2022, the total production capacity of the world’s top ten polysilicon companies will reach 1.131 million tons per year, accounting for 84.3% of the global total production capacity, an increase of 60.4% from 705,000 tons per year in 2021; the total output of the world’s top ten polysilicon companies will be about 943,400 tons tons, accounting for 94.2% of the global total output, an increase of 58.5% compared with the total output of 595,300 tons in 2021; in 2022, the total output of the world’s top five polysilicon enterprises will be 772,300 tons, accounting for about 77.2% of the global total output , the output is highly concentrated.
Development of polysilicon industry in my country in 2022
In 2022, there will be 14 polysilicon enterprises in China with an effective production capacity of 1.166 million tons per year, an increase of 87.2% year-on-year. The national polysilicon output will be about 857,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 69.4% . New production lines such as Special Energy, Qinghai Lihao, and Asia Silicon have been put into operation, and enterprises such as Yichang CSG and Concentrating Silicon have resumed production. Driven by factors such as market supply exceeding demand and high prices, polysilicon enterprises currently in production are trying to improve Capacity utilization, so there are several enterprises whose output exceeds the nominal capacity.
In terms of imports, in 2022, the import value of China’s solar-grade polysilicon (hereinafter referred to as “polysilicon”) will be US$2.58 billion, a year-on-year increase of 38%, and the import volume will be about 87,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 20.9%. In 2022, with the expansion of domestic polysilicon production capacity, the demand for imported polysilicon will begin to decline, and the import volume will begin to decline; on the other hand, the price of polysilicon will continue to increase and remain high in 2022, resulting in an increase in the import value of polysilicon. Due to the increase in domestic polysilicon supply, the proportion of imported polysilicon to domestic polysilicon consumption has gradually decreased. In 2022, imported polysilicon will account for about 9.5% of domestic consumption, a year-on-year decrease of 8.4 percentage points.
Development Outlook of Polysilicon Industry in 2023
Looking forward to 2023, the new planned polysilicon production capacity is 4.22 million tons per year, and the first phase of construction is 1.81 million tons per year. Most of them will be put into operation after 2023Q2. After the second phase of the project is put into operation (before 2025), the total production capacity of polysilicon in the country will reach 3 million tons per year, operating at 80% load, and the output of polysilicon will be 2.4 million tons. Risk of overheating. suggestion:
The first is to do a good job in top-level design and long-term planning, and avoid blind development of “rushing up and rushing down”;
The second is to strengthen scientific and technological innovation, create an atmosphere of respect for intellectual property rights, use the National Engineering Research Center for Silicon-based Material Preparation Technology and the photovoltaic technology research and development platform, continue to implement technology and equipment capabilities, and multi-path technology research and development to provide guarantees for high-quality development;
The third is to strengthen polysilicon safety and environmental protection supervision. With the expansion of polysilicon scale, the polysilicon single-line capacity will reach 50,000 tons/year, and the planned production capacity of a single polysilicon factory will reach 200,000 tons/year, or even larger. Polysilicon production systems, storage, and transportation The amount of flammable, explosive, toxic and harmful materials in other links has increased significantly, and a large number of flammable and explosive dangerous goods constitute a major source of danger. Strict control measures are required to strengthen risk awareness, strengthen bottom-line thinking, and ensure industrial safety;
The fourth is to strengthen industry self-discipline, earnestly assume social responsibilities, consciously restrain irrational expansion, strive to strengthen upstream and downstream coordination, and work together to create a community of industrial destiny, and further consolidate and enhance the global leading position.