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Who directed the 100-day ruble trend?

  On June 3, the Russian-Ukrainian war entered its 100th day of contest. The United States hoped to use the huge consumption of the eastern Ukraine battlefield to bring down the Russian economy’s strategic plan, but it did not materialize. This had to make U.S. President Biden once again call for a negotiated solution, and claimed that he had no intention of changing the Russian regime; at the same time, the U.S. Secretary of Defense and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the U.S. Army have been blowing, claiming to maintain hotline contact with the Russian military and will not lead to a direct conflict between the armed forces of the United States and Russia. The mainstream American think tanks began to re-understand the potential of the ruble, and were forced to revise their basic judgment a hundred days ago, “that is, within a month of the outbreak of the war, the ruble will be abandoned by the world.”
Financial war has become a national fortune contest

  As the United States and NATO continue to ignite, the current Ukrainian government and leaders have sought to join NATO and refused to commit to not establishing NATO missile bases on its territory. As a result, defending its own security barrier by military means became the only option for Russia, and led to the Russian presidential decree called “special military operation”! In fact, while signing this “special military operation” presidential decree, Putin also signed a series of orders to ensure Russia’s economic security and approval of the core government’s economic sector action plan. However, the latter did not receive enough attention from the Western media and American think tanks at first; some senior officials of the former US government even thought that it was just Putin’s bluff on paper and would soon become as waste paper as the ruble. However, what is the actual result?
  In the eyes of mainstream American think tanks and mainstream media such as The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal: The ruble has achieved an incredible reversal, just as Ukraine cannot defeat the Russian army, and the dollar will have a hard time reversing the ruble within this year. . It is necessary for this article to briefly review the initial financial war measures made by the West:
  On February 21, 2022, after Russia announced the recognition of the “independence” of the two republics of Donetsk and Luhansk in the Udong Donbass, the United States and Europe immediately Supporting sanctions were introduced in the shortest possible time. Then Japan and Singapore followed suit. The actual main measures include:
  · Restricting Russia’s direct use of US dollars, euros, pounds and yen for international trade settlements;
  · Including major Russian banks in the “Specially Designated Nationals List” formulated by the United States, that is, these banks not only cannot use these currencies , and cannot conduct transactions with financial institutions in
  the United States; Remove seven Russian banks selected by the United States from the Bank Settlement System (SWIFT) managed by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication to ensure that these banks are removed from the mainstream international financial system
  ; Freeze the foreign exchange reserves maintained by the Russian Central Bank in U.S. financial institutions (the U.S. estimates its share as half of Russia’s total foreign exchange reserves), in order to make it impossible to support the ruble exchange rate through foreign exchange intervention;
  prohibit Russia from using funds under U.S. jurisdiction to Repay debts, stop US credit cards MasterCard and Visa in Russia;
  · Clearly require US-funded enterprises to suspend basic business in the Russian market, especially US-funded banks and influential multinational companies such as McDonald’s.

Russian oil exports by sea have tripled since before the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

Exchange rate chart of the dollar against the ruble.

  These measures are coming with ferocity. An executive of a Japanese financial think tank and the president of a major Korean company that has trade relations with Russia both told the author: “It is estimated that the Russian economy cannot stop this kind of sanctions, if there is capital outflow, inflation and material shortages in its country. , Russia will have people’s livelihood problems and the finances will not be able to support the ‘special military operation’. Japanese companies and South Korean companies are unwilling to be severely sanctioned by the United States, so they will withdraw from the Russian market.” They also expect the United States to put pressure on China and require China to participate. Financial sanctions against Russia. A considerable part of their predictions are correct. For example, the United States is constantly exerting pressure on China. Just to no avail. In fact, from the perspective of China’s strategic economic interests, the pressure on the US side is mentally retarded!
  At the same time, the United States has wishful thinking that these sanctions can cause a substantial depreciation of the ruble and lead to capital outflows from Russia, and at the same time, import high inflation; This in turn triggered political turmoil in Moscow; after that, the ruble became a surface paper currency decoupled from the Russian economy and was excluded from the international financial and trade settlement system. When the so-called new Russian government is formed, it will choose a substantial compromise with the US, and then the US dollar will dominate the Russian economy.
In defense of the ruble, there is a chief designer!

  In my opinion, Russia is not only a big country with rich reserves of assets and strategic materials, but its coping capability and level of response to U.S. sanctions cannot be understood by countries such as Japan and South Korea. More importantly, Russia is an intelligent country, but its impression to the world is too concentrated on the distinct concept of “fighting nation”. I started research on think tank projects in 1992. The first communication object in that year was a senior researcher of the Russian think tank, the Far East Institute of the National Academy of Sciences of the Russian Federation. Russian President Yeltsin and his government were once maliciously misled by the Chicago School of Economics and implemented a radical “shock therapy”, which directly led to the sharp depreciation of the ruble and high inflation. It’s an exaggeration: the McDonald’s in Moscow actually charges dollars directly, and Putin’s daughter can’t afford it. McDonald’s set meals were once a symbol of luxury consumption.
  On August 24, 1992, China and South Korea established diplomatic relations at the ambassadorial level. The exchanges between me and the South Korean think tank also started. The value of the Korean won was relatively stable at that time, and the South Korean economy was at its peak again. The market situation by the end of this year is: South Korea has surpassed Russia for the first time in terms of the total scale of national economic assets in terms of the US dollar. That is to say, from the second year onwards, large Korean companies began to operate in the Russian market.
  After three decades of wealth baptism, reshuffle and humiliation, the ruble has entered a strategic window of rebirth as Russia’s economic vitality recovers under the continuous governance of Putin and his government; What oligarchs don’t want to see. The U.S. currency war against the ruble has actually started since the Crimean Peninsula was actually occupied by Russia in 2014. The Russian Central Bank and strategists have also carried out precise countermeasure design and large-scale practical exercises since this year, and achieved preliminary results. By the beginning of February this year, the Russian think tank clearly stated in its strategic report: defending the ruble is defending Moscow!

  When it comes to defending the ruble or defending the purchasing power of the ruble, it is natural to introduce the chief architect of this strategic move – the Governor of the Central Bank of Russia, Nabiullina. She was born in October 1963 in a middle-income family of ordinary workers in Ufa, Russia. Her father was a driver and her mother was a mechanic in a precision instrument manufacturing workshop. Nabiullina is a native economist trained by the Soviet Union and Russia, and graduated from Moscow State Lomonosov University with a degree in economics. She has no experience of studying in the West. Before the collapse of the Soviet Union, she became a civil servant of the central government, mainly in charge of policy design for economic system reform. Thirty years ago, when she left the civil service and became a think tank expert, I was contacted by think tank exchanges and felt that she was very assertive and always worked hard to defend her national interests. For example, in the exchange, she demanded that the trade settlement between China and Russia must be in US dollars; now she requires the use of rubles and renminbi. Over the past 30 years, China Foreign Exchange Trade Center began to directly list rubles and RMB transactions; now, if Chinese residents want to travel or study in Russia, they can directly use mobile banking to complete the same-day exchange rate for rubles.
  At the beginning of this century, when Putin first assumed the presidency of Russia, Nabiullina was invited to serve as the first deputy minister of economic development and trade in the central government. In September 2007, she was appointed Minister. In 2013, Nabiullina became the head of Russia’s central bank, becoming the first woman to lead a central bank among the eight major industrialized nations at the time. That is, from this time on, the Central Bank of Russia began to actively pursue monetary sovereignty and the strategic influence of the ruble!
Need to re-understand Russia’s power

  Now it seems: before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the Russian central bank did make all the preparations. President Putin listened directly to Nabiullina’s response report and accepted her carefully planned package of proposals. According to these excellent proposals, Russia not only sees tricks, but also actively invests in offensive forces. The deployment of these forces had a strategic balancing effect in the first month, and now in the fourth month, there has been a countervailing effect on the United States and Western European countries. In particular:
  The central government of Russia implements strict capital controls drafted by the central bank, requiring companies to convert 80% of their foreign exchange earnings into rubles;
  The central bank of Russia decisively and quickly raised interest rates sharply, initially from 7% to 20% %, and adjust it according to the financial struggle situation afterward;
  Western companies are ordered to pay for Russian energy purchases in rubles, and open a conversion account between euros and rubles to facilitate settlement;
  The Central Bank of Russia directly announced that 5,000 rubles will be exchanged for one gram The price of gold, which binds the ruble to gold.
  At the same time, Russia has not confiscated the assets of Western investment companies in its territory, which is also beyond the expectations of American think tanks. In the 100 days before and after the competition, the ruble appeared thriving; not only Russian companies were completely relieved, but the Russian people also began to believe that the strength of the ruble would last throughout the year. It can be said that in this currency war, the Russian central bank won the Fed, and Yellen had to admit to the US president that he completely misjudged the situation.

Yellen (first from right) admitted to U.S. President Joe Biden that he misjudged Russia’s economic situation.

  Compared with the severe inflation in the United States and the extremely tight financial resources of the US government, the Russian economy experienced a considerable growth rate of 3.5% in the first quarter, while the United States experienced a negative growth of 1.5% in the same period!
  Statistics show that Russia’s oil shipping volume has continued to rise, and in early June it has even reached three times the scale before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war; coupled with the high international energy prices, the subsequent increase in export revenue and fiscal revenue increase in magnitude. The increase in income and the balance of international payments not only continue to protect the value of the ruble, but also enhance the confidence in domestic economic development and social life.

  The performance of the ruble in the first half of the year is due to the strategic support of Russia’s energy weapons, and in the second half of the year, with the bullish international demand for food, the ruble will have a new backing!

  On May 25, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated when attending a special meeting of the Russian Federation Council of State on the issue of democratic guarantees: the vitality of the Russian economy is significantly better than the pre-war predictions of many experts; especially the unemployment rate is currently only 4%, not only no rising, and even a downward trend. The Russian Ministry of Finance announced that, in view of the current “ruble exchange rate stability and sufficient foreign currency liquidity in domestic and foreign markets, the ratio of compulsory foreign exchange settlement for export traders’ foreign exchange revenue will be reduced from 80% to 50%”!
  The ruble exchange rate itself has experienced ups and downs like a roller coaster in the 100-day financial war or currency war of sanctions and anti-sanctions. First, it plummeted from 75 rubles to 1 dollar to 150 rubles to 1 dollar and once hit a record low; after that, it rebounded all the way to 57 rubles to 1 dollar. At the same time, the exchange rate of the euro against the ruble exceeded 58 rubles per euro for the first time since June 2015. From a slump of 85% to a surge of 23%, the ruble staged a perfect counter-attack, which was considered by Wall Street observers to be the “world’s worst-performing currency” to this year’s “world’s best-performing currency”. It should be pointed out that the performance of the ruble in the first half of the year is due to the strategic support of Russia’s energy weapons, and in the second half of the year, with the bullish international demand for food, the ruble will have a new backing!
  With such confidence, Russian President Vladimir Putin generously announced that starting from June 1, Russia’s minimum wage, minimum living security standards and pensions will be increased by 10%! Among them, after the minimum wage reaches a new level of 15,279 rubles per month, Nabiullina predicts that more than 4 million workers will benefit. After the pension was increased, more than 15 million elderly people directly benefited. It can be said that the Russian people directly enjoyed the actual results of the ruble defense war. From this perspective, it is time to re-understand Russia’s economic strength!

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