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When will the Russia-Ukraine conflict end?

  Looking back on Russian history, the Soviet-Finnish war from November 30, 1939 to March 12, 1940 actually lasted 98 days and ended with the Finnish delegation to Moscow for peace. Now, as of June 3, 2022, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has exceeded 100 days. When will the conflict end? become a focus of international attention.
  Since the “special military operation” launched by the Russian army on February 24, from the insertion of airborne troops near Kyiv, to the capture of Snake Island in the Black Sea near Odessa, and the capture of Kherson and Zapo, north of Crimea In some places in Rozhya State, and when the Russian army shrank its troops to the Donbass to capture Mariupol and other places… On June 11, local time, according to a report by the Russian Satellite News Agency, Rogov, a member of the General Committee of the Military and Civil Government of Zaporozhye State, Ukraine “The first passports of Russian citizens have been issued to the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions,” it said. The Russian side even said that it will carry out the third phase of the “special military operation”. He also said that it might take Odessa and turn Ukraine into a landlocked country.
  In Ukraine, President Zelensky is also about to issue new passports. On May 22, local time, Polish President Duda visited Kyiv and delivered a speech at the Verkhovna Rada (Parliament), emphasizing that “Ukraine should become a part of the European Union”. Zelensky responded by saying that he intends to submit a draft law to the Verkhovna Rada to recognize Polish citizens as special citizens of Ukraine. Poles can serve in Ukrainian state organs, strategic enterprises, courts. Duda said Warsaw is also working on a similar bill to treat Ukrainians as Polish citizens without the right to vote. Some commentators believe that Poland is currently the western country that provides the most military assistance to the Zelenskiy authorities except the United States. Historically, Lviv and other places in western Ukraine have indeed been incorporated into Poland. What’s going on in Poland today is worth watching.
  If the new passports of Russia, Ukraine and Poland are just issued, is Ukraine still the Ukraine before the Russia-Ukraine conflict? Will the country be completely torn apart? What is the benefit to Zelensky in doing so?
  Although some analysts believe that the current action goals of the U.S. and Ukrainian Zelensky authorities are the same, that is, to fight a war of attrition against Russia while minimizing their own attrition, from other perspectives, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is not without likely to end in the foreseeable time. On June 12, NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg and Finnish President Niinisto said at a rare press conference after their meeting in Helsinki: “Peace is possible. The only problem is that you are willing to pay for peace. At what cost? How much are you willing to sacrifice for peace in terms of territory, in terms of independence and sovereignty?” Is this the official Western hint that Zelensky is making a major concession?
The critical period of the wrestling Donbass

  ”For us, this is an epoch-making event. In Kherson, Russian citizenship was solemnly confirmed! Salido, chairman of the military-civilian government of Ukraine’s Kherson region, was one of 23 people who received Russian passports on June 11. So declared. June 12 is the Russian National Day. Rogov believes that citizens of the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions can receive Russian passports on this day, which is equivalent to the two states “officially set foot on the return to Russia. “The road”.
  Kirill Stremusov, deputy chairman of the military and civilian administrative agency of Kherson state, declared in an interview with RIA Novosti on June 9 that the immediate priority of Kherson state is to accelerate the socio-economic development of the region Construction and development, because “the well-being of the people and the quality of life depend on this”. The implication is that the battle is basically over. Stremusov and Rogov have said that within this year, Kherson and Zaporozhye
  In fact, the military and civilian administrative agencies of Kherson and Zaporozhye states were formed after the Russian army took control of the southern part of Kherson state and the Assyrian coast of Zaporozhye state respectively . Yes. Although these Russian-occupied places began to broadcast Russian TV and radio programs, began to resume trade with the Crimea Peninsula, and Russian President Vladimir Putin signed an order on May 25 to simplify the procedures for residents of the two states to obtain Russian citizenship. However, in fact, the Zelensky authorities in Ukraine still control parts of Zaporozhye Oblast. Since the end of May, Zelensky has inspected the front line, successively going to Kharkiv, a major town in eastern Ukraine, and the southern city of Zaporozhye. Zaporozhye, the capital of Rozhya State, Lisichansk in the Donbas region, etc. Some of the live photos even showed that Zelensky didn’t even wear a bulletproof vest, which means that this place was firmly controlled by the forces of the Kiev authorities. It’s very safe for him to be here.

On June 2, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continued in Popasna, Donbas region. The picture shows pro-Russian armed men driving military vehicles.

  In the opinion of Ukrainian military expert Oleg Zhdanov, Zelensky went to these places to inspect mainly because the Kyiv authorities believed that the Russian army would attack Lisichansk, Kharkiv and Zaporo in order in the next step. Heat and other cities to attack. “Zelensky’s trip to the front line, I think the public relations component is more important than military command and decision-making, but his presence on the front line has really boosted the morale of the Ukrainian army.”
  Various signs indicate that in early June, the Russian army occupied Donne. On the occasion of northern Tsk, the local Ukrainian army retreated on a large scale along the lines of Lisichansk and Bakhmut. At the same time, commercial satellite images show that the Russian army is currently building a pontoon bridge in Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast. And on the edge of Kupyansk is the P07 highway – the road from Kharkiv to northern Donetsk and Lisichansk. It can be seen that this is to strengthen the construction of supply lines for the next attack, and to prepare for the Russian army to launch operations in Luhansk Oblast in the future.
  The fulcrum of the Russian army’s supply line is Izum in the southern part of Kharkov. This small town with a permanent population of less than 50,000 and more than 40 square kilometers has been in the hands of the Russian army since Russia launched the second stage of military operations. “Izum has concentrated more than a dozen battalion-level battle groups of the Russian army, accounting for about 15% of Russia’s total troops in Ukraine.” Zhang Hong, a researcher at the Institute of Russia, Eastern Europe and Central Asia, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said, “The Russian side is very persistent in the direction of Izum. In order to prevent the Russian army from going south and occupying the entire Donbass, the Ukrainian side also concentrated its firepower on Izum.”
  Looking back on Izum’s offensive and defense – on April 30, the Ukrainian army used rockets to intensively bombed Izum and Russia. Army positions; on May 10, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces stated that the Ukrainian army captured 4 settlements from the Russian army, and the shells not only fell on Izum, but also fell on the Russian border city of Belgorod. Causing casualties, this is the first time since Russia launched a “special military operation” on February 24 that the Russian mainland has been hit by fire from the ground; after that, the US think tank “War Institute” said that in the face of the attack by the Ukrainian army, the Russian army The 138th Mechanized Brigade was withdrawn from the Kharkov region.

  According to the public reports of the Russian side, after the Russian mainland was bombarded by the Ukrainian army, the Russian army did not launch a counter-offensive action in the attacked area, but relied on Izum to attack Ukraine in the west and south of Izum. Heavy artillery fire on army positions. The 74th Motor Infantry Brigade of the 41st Army of the Russian Federation was trying to cross the Severo Donetsk River to the east and besieged the Ukrainian army in Lubezhnoye, Luhansk Oblast. On May 11, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense announced that the 17th Ukrainian Tank Brigade destroyed the pontoon bridge built by the Russian army on the Severo Donetsk River near the city of Luhansk, severely damaging the Russian armored convoy, and the casualties are unknown.
  Until the end of May, Ukrainian Kharkiv Governor Sinikhupov also stated that the area around Izum was still the main hotspot of the Donbas War, and the Ukrainian army launched a counter-offensive there, forcing the enemy to retreat in some places.
  In an interview with a reporter from Xinmin Weekly, Wu Xinbo, dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University and director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University, analyzed: “During the first stage of military operations, the Russian army bypassed the main force of the Ukrainian army in Donbas to fight. The reason is that in terms of how Russia used troops at that time, there were not many soldiers in Ukraine. Putin wanted to send troops quickly to deter Ukraine and meet Ukraine’s requirements for recognizing Russia, such as agreeing not to join NATO. Later, I discovered this The tactics did not work well, so the shrinking force was steady and steady in the Donbass, trying to open up the land passage between Crimea and Udong first.” In Wu Xinbo’s view, just in terms of the battlefield situation, June was the month of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Critical period. “Because of the adjustment of tactics, since May, the battlefield situation has gradually benefited Russia.” Wu Xinbo said, “The elite of the Ukrainian army is in the Donbass. It seemed to be effectively resisting and even taking counter-offensive measures. Western military aid is ‘endorsed’, but if the heavy forces of Ukraine’s Kyiv authorities in the Ukrainian Donbass area are annihilated by the Russian army, I am afraid it will be extremely unfavorable for Zelensky to seek Western aid.” Wu Xinbo believes that the possibility of restarting negotiations between Russia and Ukraine , depending on when the situation in the Battle of Donbass becomes clear.
Are both Russia and Ukraine facing a shortage of troops?

  On June 4, local time, Andrei Yemark, head of the Ukrainian presidential office, shared a social media post. The original poster, Andrei Morozov, a civilian armed soldier in Luhansk, claimed that the 35th Army of the Russian Army was hit hard in Izyum. combat infantry does not exceed 100.”
  Since then, the Kyiv authorities have not officially confirmed the accuracy of this news, and the Russian side has not admitted that the 35th Army has almost been wiped out. Morozov then stated that his unit was located about 100 kilometers southeast of Izum, near the town of Toshkovka in the Luhansk region. Based on this calculation, he may not have witnessed the destruction of the friendly Russian 35th Army. However, from this news, we can explore a question-how many troops are the Russian troops transferred to Ukraine? Unlike many people’s impression of an army of tens of thousands of people, it is said that the Russian 35th Army, originally stationed in the Far East Amur region, was transferred to Belarus for exercises at the end of 2021. A total of less than 10,000 people were deployed. This is an “group army” with only 6 battalion-level tactical groups. In terms of strength, it can’t keep up with a tank division in the Soviet era. In the Soviet era, if a battle tank division was fully staffed, the infantry alone would have to exceed 2,000. people. During the Russo-Japanese War, it was said that an army group of the Tsarist Russian army had more than 100,000 people.
  The Russian 35th Army that entered the Kharkov region encountered the Ukrainian 93rd Independent Mechanized Brigade. This is the elite of the Ukrainian army, and in terms of soldiers, weapons and equipment, it can be regarded as comparable to the Russian 35th Army Group. Therefore, the 35th Army must have suffered battle damage, but whether the scale of the battle damage reached the level of the whole system and almost all of them were wiped out, this has yet to be confirmed.

  Through the “spot” of the Russian 35th Army Group, it can be seen that the “full panther” of the Russian army’s entry into Ukraine.

  Through the “spot” of the Russian 35th Army Group, it can be seen that the “full panther” of the Russian army’s entry into Ukraine. At the beginning of the Russian army’s “special military operation”, Putin emphasized that “only professional soldiers will participate in the ‘special military operation’, and active duty conscripts and conscripts will not participate.” But on March 9, Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov publicly admitted: “Unfortunately, we have discovered some facts that show that there are active duty conscripts in the Russian Armed Forces participating in this attack on Ukraine. The ‘special military operation’ carried out.” But at that time until now, the main policy of the Russian side’s “special military operation” has not changed, that is, no conscripts are required to go out. Konashenkov’s statement was followed by a sentence – “Almost all conscripts conscripted have been withdrawn from Ukraine, and the military is currently investigating how they were involved in the operation in the first place to ensure that such incidents do not happen again. “Russia wants to “zero out” the conscripts in the Ukrainian-Russian army. Using soldiers like this is equivalent to having two hands, but hitting people with only one hand – it was clear from the very beginning of the “special military operation”, The military structure of the Russian army is designed to support small-scale wars. Today, the total force in Ukraine does not exceed 200,000 people, but it is supporting a large-scale ground war, especially with the increase in battle losses. In terms of future troop replenishment, it remains to be seen how Russia will consider it. The reporter of “Xinmin Weekly” noticed that General Vladimir Kulisov, the first deputy director of the Russian Federal Security Service and director of the Border Defense Agency, disclosed on May 27 that the Russian border guards were already in the border area with Ukraine at that time. , strengthening reserves, armored vehicles and collective weapons.

On May 13, near Kharkiv, Ukraine, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continued. The picture shows a badly damaged Russian tank.

  Compared with Russia, the Kyiv authorities in Ukraine issued a national mobilization order as early as February 23, just before the Russian army crossed the border. At that time, while fleeing westward to Poland, Ukrainian refugees encountered a situation where the military “grabbed strong men” and separated their wives and children. On May 13, Ukrainian Defense Minister Reznikov said through social media that he plans to mobilize 1 million people to improve national defense capabilities. Since June, many Ukrainians have petitioned Zelensky’s website, hoping that he will lift the ban on Ukrainian men aged 18-60 from leaving the country. According to current law, when the country is in a state of war or a state of emergency, Ukrainian citizens can be restricted from exercising their constitutional right to leave the country freely, and the validity period of such restrictions should be “clarified,” Kozelensky said. According to the current decision of the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine’s wartime state has been extended to August 23.
  The problem is that Ukraine is mobilizing with all the strength of the whole country. Even if one million people are drawn into the army, the vast majority of these people are those who have never been soldiers or participated in actual combat. How to become a war veteran overnight? For the Zelensky authorities, a more reliable approach is to make a more rational deployment of the original troops. Just as Russia has strengthened the deployment of border guards, Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada said on June 11 local time that Zelensky had signed a law allowing officers and soldiers of the territorial defense forces to be dispatched to war zones to perform tasks, not just limited to their jurisdiction. According to this law, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will issue specific orders for the deployment of territorial defense forces to the theater of operations.

  Ukraine is of course also banking on international aid, such as the recruitment of foreign mercenaries. But the Russian side said on June 11 that the Russian Aerospace Forces used high-precision missiles to destroy foreign mercenary camps in Ukharkov Oblast. This is obviously a warning to foreign mercenaries in Ukraine.
  The “Donetsk People’s Republic” court announced on June 9, local time, that three foreign mercenaries captured in Mariupol were sentenced to death. They are two British citizens, Sean Pinner and Aiden Aslin, and a Moroccan citizen, Ibrahim Saadon. “Foreign Minister” Nikonorova of the “Donetsk People’s Republic” later said on the YouTube channel “Solovyov Live”: “Britain and Morocco are not willing to contact us, they don’t care at all The fate of the citizens of their own country. It is possible that they could send lawyers to defend these people, but they did not.” Previously, the “Donetsk People’s Republic” had announced that these captured foreign mercenaries would not be arrested. Considered a prisoner of war and therefore cannot go home through the prisoner exchange process. Konashenkov, a spokesman for the Russian Ministry of Defense, said that according to the law of the “Donetsk People’s Republic”, the trial persons can challenge the verdict within one month. “The best thing that awaits them is long prison terms,” ​​Konashenkov said.

On June 5, a photo provided by the Ukrainian Presidential Press Service shows Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (second from right) inspecting Zaporozhye and talking with front-line soldiers.

  Shao Yongling, a first-level professor at the Rocket Force Command College of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army, interpreted this as: “From the point of view of the Russian side and the ‘Donetsk People’s Republic’, these prisoners are hired by some Western private military companies, not international Humanitarian law stipulates that “combatants” are not entitled to the treatment of prisoners of war, and they will also be regarded as criminals and subject to criminal proceedings to be prosecuted for war crimes. Seeing this situation, many mercenaries who want to help Zelensky with their lives have Pack and go home.” Canadian sniper Wally, who was once mythical in some Western media in March, is one of the pack. At that time, some media said that Wally had shot the Russian army 3 kilometers away and was simply the best sniper in the world. After returning to Canada, he complained that the Ukrainian army had insufficient weapons and equipment, insufficient training, and suffered heavy casualties. There were also speculation and desertion in the army, and it was not worth his life, so he returned. In fact, if Valli learned that since the disintegration of the Soviet Union, there have been people in Ukraine who have been selling arms, and he would have understood that he really shouldn’t have gone into this muddy water. At present, even Avril Haynes, Director of National Intelligence of the United States, does not understand – where is the equipment of Western military aid to Ukraine, and how much is used in resistance to Russia? At a U.S. Senate hearing in May, Avril Haynes even said: “We actually know more about Russia than we do about Ukraine.”
  A veteran of the U.S. Marine Corps code-named “Dakota” said , He once went to Ukraine to help the Ukrainian army master the Javelin anti-tank system, but found that they were not good at learning, and sometimes they even forgot to check the battery of the system in advance and pre-installed it before going to the battlefield. The day after arriving at the front line, the “Dakota” found that 8 of the 20 foreign aid “volunteers” in Ukraine had slipped away. What are you waiting for? “Dakota” also slipped away.
American and European ideas are becoming more and more consistent

  Konashenkov said on June 8 that the Ukrainian army suffered heavy casualties in the Donbass. In the three-day battle for the “liberation” of the “Donetsk People’s Republic” Sviatogorsk by the Russian army alone, the Russian army and the Donetsk armed forces killed more than 300 Ukrainian nationalists, as well as 6 vehicles. Tanks, 15 armored fighting vehicles of various types, 36 field artillery and mortars, 4 ‘Hail’ MLRS units and more than 20 vehicles.
  Vadim Skibitsky, deputy head of the Ukrainian Defense Intelligence Service, said the Kyiv authorities were running out of ammunition on the front lines. “Everything now depends on what is given to us. One gun in Ukraine, 10 to 15 guns against Russia, our Western partners only give us about 10 percent of what they have,” Skibitsky said. Agence France-Presse even reported that all the Soviet-era ammunition in Ukraine and the former Warsaw Pact countries that were invested in the West was almost exhausted.
  Under such circumstances, will the United States and NATO increase military aid to Ukraine? In Wu Xinbo’s view, this may not be the case. “The United States wants to consume Russia through the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. In April, when Ukraine seemed to be resisting, the United States seemed very proud.” Wu Xinbo told reporters, “But the battlefield situation since May shows that Ukraine does not have the ability to consume Russia for a long time. “Wu Xinbo pointed out that in the United States, Biden originally hoped to use the Russian-Ukrainian crisis to improve his personal image and increase his approval rate. But polls in early June showed that Biden’s approval rating fell to 36%, a new low since he took office, and lower than the 39% in Trump’s lowest period, setting a new low for a sitting U.S. president after World War II.

Biden faces an extremely difficult midterm election situation.

  In November of this year, the US mid-term elections are approaching, and Biden needs a shot to give the Democratic Party a firm foothold in Congress. If the Republican Party controls Congress after the midterm elections, Biden will become a “lame president” for the second two years of his term. At present, the Republican Party is against military aid to Ukraine. How to find a balance in the electoral field and increase the approval rate really tests the decision-making ability of Biden and his team. In the wake of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, high energy prices also hit the U.S. economy. These are all factors that are not conducive to Biden’s gains in the midterm elections. What should he do? On May 31, local time, Biden published a signed article in the New York Times “What the United States will and will not do in Ukraine”, which comprehensively and in detail expounds the goals of the U.S. government. He re-emphasized to help European allies reduce their dependence on Russian fossil fuels and accelerate the transition to clean energy; welcomes Finland and Sweden to NATO. But he also emphasized again that “the Putin government will not be overthrown because of Ukraine.”
  In Wu Xinbo’s view, Biden’s words tend to be pragmatic. Wu Xinbo also reminded that the former US Secretary of State, who is nearly 100 years old, has been speaking frequently in recent days, which actually reflects the intentions of some people and political forces in the United States. Kissinger made it clear at the Davos Economic Forum that Zelensky should seek reconciliation with Russia, even if it cedes territory. Zelensky seemed very dissatisfied with this, and satirized whether the old man lived in 1939, making it clear that Russia was the role of Nazi Germany back then. But Kissinger said in a reply to the British “The Times” on June 11, “After the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Europe must find a place for Ukraine and a place for Russia – assuming we don’t want Russia to be China’s leader. European outposts”. This shows that in the West, someone is already planning the post-Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
  Wu Xinbo believes that the current energy dependence of Europe, Germany, France, Italy, etc. on Russia cannot be lifted overnight, nor can the United States be able to find a replacement with a few beautiful words. This winter of 2023, how can Europe store energy for the cold winter? “These Western powers in Europe have always wanted to mediate, but because of Germany’s previous cooperation with Russia on the ‘Nord Stream 2’ gas pipeline and other reasons, the United States does not seem to have confidence in the current Germany. Therefore, in the new round of mediation, see It has come to Italy and other countries.” Wu Xinbo told reporters, “Compared to the Western powers, some countries in the former Warsaw Pact organization, after joining NATO, hope that someone will fight fiercely with Russia and weaken Russia’s power at one time. But I think their influence In the West, power is limited.”
  Perhaps, what really affects the final decision of these Eastern European countries is the United States – not what the United States says, but what the United States does. On June 11, Rogozin, President of Roscosmos, disclosed that the United States had complied with Russian regulations and paid for the American astronaut Mark van der Hei to ride on the Russian “Soyuz” spacecraft with rubles. Another source said that in May, Boeing in the United States had to suspend production of Boeing 737MAX aircraft for at least 10 days due to supply chain problems. “Boeing is extremely dependent on Russian titanium raw materials, accounting for 30% to 40% of the company’s titanium imports, and at least one-third of Boeing aircraft are completely assembled from Russian titanium.” Russian aviation safety expert Roman Gusalov said, “In addition to titanium, there are also shortages of other components that Boeing aircraft manufacturing relies on imports.” Boeing CEO David Calhoun said that due to supply chain problems, the delivery of the aircraft was delayed. “Disappointed” Boeing customers.
  In this case, what else is Russia and Ukraine doing?

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