Many people believe that people are living longer with better health care, which will lead to overpopulation and consume more resources. Contrary to what we think, when life expectancy gets longer and longer, there is usually no overpopulation. Conversely, the total fertility rate (the average number of births per woman) tends to fall as people are more inclined to delay childbearing and reduce the number of children.
Many friends may think that this is impossible: people are living longer and longer, how can there be no overpopulation? In fact, in recent decades, while human life expectancy has increased, the fertility rate has indeed declined. Therefore, although the global population is still growing, the growth rate is not as fast as in the past, and even some areas have experienced negative population growth in recent years. For example, Japan is the country with the longest average life expectancy in the world. The average life expectancy of the Japanese has reached 84 years, but the total fertility rate is only about 1. In the 1960s, the average life expectancy of the Japanese was less than 70 years old, but the total fertility rate was above 2.
Therefore, we can say that longevity does not lead to overpopulation at all. In fact, children around the age of 4 can already expect to live longer. According to the forecast of some institutions in the UK, about one-third of the British people are expected to celebrate their 100th birthday.
However, such a long life is not all good things. Surveys show that in some countries where life expectancy has increased, there is no sign that these long-lived older people are in good health.
Back to our original question. Although extending human lifespan does not bring about overpopulation, after all, more and more people are living longer, which is also a huge burden for the earth. Not only that, but there is also a huge gap in life expectancy between developed and underdeveloped countries. Wouldn’t it be inappropriate to allow more people to live longer in developed countries that already consume more resources?
It can be seen that it is too early to consider extending the overall life span of human beings. Our number one goal now should be to increase life expectancy in less developed parts of the world without compromising their health and livelihood. Only then can we begin to consider whether we should extend human lifespan as a whole.
Everyone wants to live a long life. If it is assumed that everyone lives to be 100 years old, the population is evenly distributed, and the annual birth population is 14 million, and the annual death population is also 14 million. In this way, the population can be exactly balanced.
So many people are surprised, why the current annual death population in our country is only about 10 million? Can people live to be 140 years old? In fact, the current low death toll in my country is mainly related to the age structure of our population.
In fact, our population in each age group is affected by the population born in a certain year. For example, the number of people turning 60 today has been influenced by the number of baby boomers born since 1962. At that time, the number of births per year was as high as 25 million, while the number of births in 2022 was less than 10 million. In this case, the proportion of my country’s elderly population will definitely continue to increase. According to national statistics, by the end of 2022, the number of elderly people over the age of 60 in my country will be 280.04 million, and the population over 65 will be 209.78 million, accounting for 19.8% and 14.9% respectively.
For example, according to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics in 2020, the estimated population by age and gender shows that there were more than 124 million people aged 30 to 34 in my country, while the population aged 15 to 19 was only 72.68 million. That is to say, the average annual population is reduced by 10 million. As people get older, the death rate increases, and the number of elderly people begins to decrease dramatically. The population aged 70-74 is less than 50 million, the population aged 75-79 is only 31 million, and the population aged 80 and over is also 35.8 million.
In fact, the number of deaths per year is the result of the actual statistics of the country, and then we extrapolate the death rate for each age based on this.
Population births in recent years: From 2014 to 2022, the country’s initial figures were 16.83 million, 16.87 million, 17.86 million, 17.23 million, 15.23 million, 14.65 million, 12 million, 10.62 million, and 9.56 million. After the seventh census data collection, the National Bureau of Statistics revised the relevant data. The birth population data in 2016 was revised to 18.83 million, and in 2017 to 17.65 million.
From 18.83 million to 9.56 million, the number of births decreased by 49.2%. The number of deaths in recent years: In 2014, the number of deaths in my country was 9.74 million, and it has increased year by year since then, relatively slowly. Rapid growth will begin in 2021 and 2022, reaching 10.14 million and 10.41 million, respectively.
Different age groups will have different mortality data. The relevant death rate refers to the ratio of the number of deaths in a certain year to the number of people in that age group in that year. 10 to 20 years old is the golden age of people, and the death rate is extremely low.
According to the life table used by social security personnel in the United States in 2013 (the life expectancy of men and women in this table is similar to ours now), the death probability of 10-year-old boys is 0.0091%, and the death probability of 10-year-old girls is 0.0094%. However, the number of relevant data doubles with age.
In recent decades, while life expectancy has increased, the fertility rate has indeed declined. Therefore, although the global population is still growing, the growth rate is not as fast as in the past, and even some areas have experienced negative population growth in recent years.
By the age of 60, the mortality rate increased to 1.1197% for men and 0.6545% for women. The mortality rate at age 80 is 5.9403% for men and 4.3289% for women. Of course, after all, it is only the probability of death. In fact, after decades of screening, there are not many old people who can really live to be a hundred years old. According to the data of the life table, there are 935 males and 2745 females who live to 100 years old in 100,000 people.
With the rapid increase of the population over the age of 60 (the population over the age of 60 in my country will account for 19.8% of the total population in 2022), the base is too large, so the total number of deaths in my country will also increase rapidly.
So, in fact, it does not mean that with a population base of 1.4 billion, how many people die every year is considered normal. Rather, it is necessary to calculate based on the population structure to be able to draw specific figures. As the degree of aging in our country intensifies, the number of deaths will increase rapidly every year in the future.