“If War Knocks on the Door” and Its Strategic Thinking

  Do you understand the underlying reasons behind the Russia-Ukraine conflict? What kind of enlightenment did you get through the conflict between Russia and Ukraine?
From the First Anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

  On February 24, 2023, the first anniversary of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
  During the year, from the Russian army’s blitz attack on Kiev at the beginning of the war, to the many online and offline negotiations between Russia and Ukraine during the war, many international organizations and righteous people hoped that the war would end as soon as possible, and they were actively mediating and working hard to give Peace with opportunity.
  However, behind this, there is a force that always seems to do not want peace to come. In the past year, whenever Russia and Ukraine were ready to sit at the negotiating table to reach a peace agreement, the United States and its Western allies always appeared on time to “add fuel to the flames” and interfere in the process. Over the past year, the United States and its Western allies have provided huge amounts of military aid to Ukraine while continuously escalating various sanctions against Russia. According to statistics, the weapons and equipment provided include 700 tanks, thousands of armored vehicles, 1,000 artillery pieces, more than 2 million rounds of shells, more than 50 sets of long-range artillery pieces, and anti-ship and air defense systems. For the United States alone, the cumulative amount of military aid has exceeded 50 billion US dollars.
  On February 20, 2023, just before the first anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, U.S. President Joe Biden made a surprise visit to Ukraine and announced that the U.S. would provide Ukraine with ammunition including Seahorse multiple rocket launchers and Javelin anti-tank missile systems. Including a new package of military aid worth 500 million U.S. dollars, and called on Western countries to increase arms aid to Ukraine and escalate various sanctions against Russia. Some Western politicians also took the opportunity to go to Kiev to launch another round of “political performances”. Even Finland, originally a permanent neutral country, since July 5, 2022, representatives of 30 NATO member states signed the protocol on the accession of Finland and Sweden to the treaty. also became very active. On March 10, 2023, Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin visited Ukraine for the second time in a year, announcing plans to provide Ukraine with 13 weapons aid, with a total value of about 750 million euros.
  As early as August 24, 2022, half a year after the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Washington Post wrote an article commenting: “In the past six months of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the world stands on the edge of a knife”, “We still feel that this is just a prelude.” . At the time, many thought this view was too pessimistic. Peace and development are the aspirations of people all over the world. During this year, there are not a few people who wish the war to end. But looking at it now, all these efforts may have been basically wiped out from the moment Biden arrived in Kiev to “supervise the battle”. Some experts commented that this may become another point of escalation of the conflict, the dawn of peace seems to be dimming, and a protracted crisis may really become a reality. In this regard, some observers have analyzed that the continuation of the Ukraine crisis is in line with the US strategy of consolidating hegemony. In the long run, using Ukraine to minimize Russia’s influence in the post-Soviet space, while taking the opportunity to cut off economic, energy, and technological ties between Europe and Russia, reactivate NATO, and deeply control Europe may be a bigger game for the United States to play. As long as the U.S. policy of “using Ukraine to control Russia” and “using Russia to control Europe” continues, there will be no hope of peace in the Ukraine crisis.
  Facts speak louder than words. Regarding the nature of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, if we say that the conflict broke out at the beginning, the public opinion field was still full of voices and no consensus was reached. Today, people have fully seen that the Ukraine issue does have a complicated history, but the human factor is the key variable that promotes the escalation of the crisis. The Russia-Uzbekistan conflict is not a neighborhood friction. It is a competition between the conservative forces of the Western hegemony led by the United States and the emerging power Russia. There are even comments that the United States is the driving force behind this war and the source of disaster in today’s world.
  History is a textbook. Looking at the history of the founding of the United States, although it has been less than 250 years, it has launched military operations for more than 230 years. According to statistics, from the end of World War II to 2001, a total of 248 armed conflicts occurred in 153 regions of the world, of which 201 were directly initiated by the United States. Ironically, none of these conflicts took place outside the continental United States. Afghanistan, Iraq, Somalia, Syria, Ukraine… The United States has become the source of war and the exporter of disaster, and the whole world is paying for the chaos.
  The Russia-Ukraine conflict is the largest military conflict in Europe in the 21st century. Its impact is not limited to Russia and Ukraine. The crisis brought about by the war has permeated the entire world, aggravating the trend of anti-globalization and camp division, and boosting the global The confrontation between geopolitical groups, coupled with the new crown epidemic, high inflation and natural disasters that mankind has not yet overcome, the spillover effect has spread to the whole world. It is no exaggeration to say that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is violently impacting the general trend of world peace and development, and the world security situation is becoming more and more fragile and sensitive. In this regard, Nouriel Roubini, a senior economist and a well-known pessimist, mentioned in his recently published book “Super Threats” that in the next ten years, the world economy will face from unprecedented debt chaos to The threat posed by a series of interacting crises, including global climate anomalies; in a 2022 column in the Financial Times, economic historian Adam Tooze proclaims an era of “multiple crises” and warns The geopolitical crisis and the threat of global ecological collapse are just the beginning. “Now we are walking on thin ice, and the future will only become more unstable and nerve-wracking.”
  Perhaps the above views are the predictions of experts. However, what is visible to the naked eye is that rounds of extreme sanctions imposed by the United States and the West on Russia have finally triggered global inflation, energy crises, and severe food crises; Accelerated “fierce competition” against China, constantly creating new wars or economic “traps”; the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict “activated” NATO, and NATO led by the United States continued to expand northward while taking the opportunity to get involved in the Asia-Pacific, and NATO’s globalization process Keep going.
  On June 29, 2022, the NATO Madrid Summit adopted the “NATO 2022 Strategic Concept”, which released NATO’s new strategic concepts for the next 10 years, such as “shaping the enemy”, “strengthening the army”, “expanding northward” and “advancing eastward”. “Molding the Enemy” directly refers to Russia as “the biggest and direct threat” and falsely claims that China poses a “systematic challenge” to NATO; “Northward Expansion” proposes to expand the number of NATO member states from the current 30 to 32, and step up the promotion of Finland and Sweden joining NATO; “Eastward Expansion” intends to expand NATO’s influence to the Indo-Pacific region. NATO’s “strategic concept” is full of confrontation, zero-sum thinking and ideological bias. “Northern expansion” means a “historic reorganization” in the European continent, which is bound to intensify the confrontation with Russia; Create more confrontation.
  On January 8, 2023, Meng Xiangqing, a technical major general and professor of the National Security College of the National Defense University, wrote an article in the “Guangming Daily” analyzing the world security situation and the characteristics of military competition in 2022. : The superimposition of the century-old changes in the world and the Ukraine crisis has affected the accelerated evolution of the global security pattern; traditional and non-traditional security threats interact with each other, and the two threats rise at the same time and resonate at the same frequency, leading to intensified regional turbulence; the game of great powers and group confrontation have escalated significantly, and the “Asian Cold War” The pattern is beginning to emerge; the threat of the “Three Hegemons” (hegemony, hegemony, and bullying) is on the rise, the “four major deficits” (peace deficit, development deficit, security deficit, and governance deficit) are intensifying, and security issues are interconnected, transnational, and diverse. The situation in the Taiwan Strait is tense, and the unstable and uncertain factors in the security environment around China have increased. In the next 5 to 10 years, some acts of subverting and destroying the existing international rules will inevitably lead to the superposition of existing contradictions and incremental contradictions, and the “butterfly effect” of the risks derived from the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will definitely accelerate the major shocks, major divisions, and major reorganizations of the international situation , Great evolution, the shadow of biological warfare, cyber warfare, cognitive warfare, financial warfare, space warfare and other non-traditional forms of warfare will gradually cover the world, and the risk of new world wars will become higher and higher.

  No matter how perfect the lies carefully fabricated by the United States are, they cannot stand the test of time after all. The escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has completely torn off the US’s pretense, and its ambition to dominate the world is clearly revealed. The US is dragging the world into the abyss. Facing world disturbances and disruptors, the international environment will become more complex, more competitive, and less predictable. Under such circumstances, how should countries act, and what should we do?
Find the “answer” in “If War Knocks on the Door”

  They say it won’t move an inch east. what’s the result? We were lied to. They had the audacity to cheat us. NATO expanded eastward five times. ——Putin Although
  the world is safe, if you forget the battle, you will be in danger. ——”Sima Fa Renben”
  Do you want peace? Then you are ready for war! —— Clausewitz
  These are the first few sentences that catch the eye when I get the book “If War Knocks on the Door”.
  Perhaps, this is also the biggest revelation brought to us by the first anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
  The book “If War Knocks on the Door” focuses on the hot topics caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and national defense fever, and closely follows the “keep an eye on changes in technology, changes in war, Changes in Opponents”, through six chapters, “Eye of History”, “Changes in War”, “Light of Technology”, “King of Weapons”, “Learning from Other Mountains”, and “Questions of Development”, explores the world pattern, future war forms and technological challenges. , the development of weapons, it is advocated to polish the eyes of history, recognize the situation, enhance awareness, and continuously strengthen the awareness of urgency; see through changes in war, technology, and weapons, broaden the horizon of war, grasp the pulse of information-based war, and find the “basic point” of preparations for war ; learn from other mountains, inspire brainstorming, build the confidence to win with the inferior, and dare to fight; ask questions about development, aim at winning, focus on preparing for war, ask the people for advice, ask the army for advice, and gather the wisdom of all. Conspire together.
  In September 2022, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, the State Council, and the Central Military Commission issued the “Opinions on Strengthening and Improving National Defense Education for All in the New Era”, which provides guidance and direction for national defense education for the current and future periods. “Our army is the people’s army, and our national defense is the national defense of the whole people.” If national defense is the way of national survival, then the concept of national defense is the soul of national survival. As Aristotle said: “The line of defense of the mind is the cheapest and most effective defense of a nation.” Armies are to be prepared for war. But preparing for and winning wars is not just a matter for soldiers. A war, on the surface, is a confrontation between two armies, but in fact it is a contest of comprehensive national strength, a contest of national spirit and national quality. A strong national defense depends on the support of individual individuals. Only when the whole nation has a strong sense of national defense can we build a solid pillar of national defense and security. “If War Knocks on the Door” opens a window for readers to strengthen the concept of national defense and expand strategic thinking. I believe that deep reading and careful reading can also enlighten readers on the dream of building a strong country and a strong army with one heart and one mind.
  About the Preface. The whole book begins with the dialogue between the French commander Gamalin and British Prime Minister Winston Churchill when the German army launched a “blitzkrieg” against France in World War II. “The number is not as good as others, the equipment is not as good as others, and the methods are not as good as others.” These “three are not as good” are the reasons why Gan Molin believes that the French army failed.
  History is a mirror. The conclusion of “three inferiors” made by Gan Molin back then was the inevitable result of the French army’s military theory lagging behind the development of the war. At that time, when mechanized warfare was dominant, the French army was still obsessed with the successful experience of the First World War, which caused a serious lag in military theory and eventually led to the fate of defeating the army and subjugating the country. War has always been a contest between wise men, and the advantage of war is prepared. War depends on “preparation”, but the key is “preparation”. So, in the 21st century, if war knocks on the door, are we ready?
  About “The Eyes of History Chapter 1”. History is the best textbook. The 20th century is a magnificent century. In this era of peaceful development, the “troika” of politics, economy, technology and war are intertwined with each other. With the United States and the Soviet Union as the main line, “big wars” that have influenced the 20th century and may even affect the future for a long time have been staged. event”. Standing in the background of the new era, reviewing this period of history with a critical eye may give us some different enlightenment.
  This chapter provides an in-depth analysis of “The Founding of NATO – The Unleashed Story of the “Cold War Freak””, “The Disintegration of the Warsaw Pact – The “Birth” of the Cold War”, “The Great Changes in Eastern Europe – The “Political Earthquake” of the 20th Century”, “Terror The Threat of the Internet——The Endless Underground War”, “The Invasion of the Internet——The War of Information Terror in the 21st Century”, “The Scourge of the Epidemic——Disease Director’s Silent War”, “The Mercenary’s “Death”——The Broker of War and Death” . These contents are connected with hot topics such as the historical roots of the Russia-Ukraine conflict that current readers are concerned about, the neo-Nazi organization that Putin talked about, the latest claims related to the epidemic discovered in a Ukrainian laboratory, and the large number of mercenaries that appeared in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. When writing, the author did not directly expand on the current sensitive topics in Russia and Ukraine, but based on the principle of reflecting reality through history, he used his pen and ink to explore the roots of topics that readers are concerned about nowadays. Going back to history may allow us to more deeply discern the essence of the United States and the West and the logic behind the complex international situation, or it may allow us to make the same conclusion as the Prussian military theorist Carl von Clausewitz – “You want peace Is it? Then you prepare for war!”
  on “Chapter 2 Changes in War”. Clausewitz said, “War has always been a chameleon, it is constantly changing to adapt to the new environment and disguise itself.” In future wars, whoever can keep an eye on the changes in war will be able to accurately understand and grasp the essence of war. Characteristic law, take the initiative in war. So, what will the future of war look like? The author believes that from mechanization to informatization to intelligence, the evolution of warfare is triggering chain breakthroughs in the military field, extending the battlefield from the physical and information domains to the cognitive and social domains. It is commendable that when the author interprets the grand proposition of “war changes”, he does not start from a purely theoretical perspective, let alone a panoramic presentation, but chooses a perspective that is most familiar to ordinary readers—— Starting from the dimension of war, through in-depth analysis of the changes in the battlefield space, readers can get a glimpse of the whole picture. This ingenious concept greatly enhances the popularization, knowledge and readability of the work, which is easy to understand and unique.
  This chapter begins with “Battlefield-Future War without Human Shadow”, asking whether unmanned war can start, and then from “Space-“Space War” is approaching” and “Underground-War Extending Underground” “The Seabed – War Will Start from the Seabed”, “Frequency Domain – War on the Information System Center”, “Network – The War of Computer Experts”, “Intelligence – Radio Waves of Intelligent Blessing”, “Heart War – Attacking the Heart “Nuclear Age” Comes “The 8 dimensions of “Style-Precision Warfare One Hit” show us the ubiquitous and all-encompassing information warfare, which is blurring the boundaries between peacetime, crisis and war. It makes us deeply feel that the informatization and intelligent battlefield space has broken through the fields of land, sea, air, sky, and electricity, and is extending towards the fields of network, spectrum, and cognition, and has great potential to expand to the underground, seabed, solar system, and even The tendency of the human brain to expand. At the same time, the author warns the world through “Nuclear War: A Lingering Nightmare” that despite the growing calls for peace and the development of science and technology that have made some sophisticated conventional weapons dominate the battlefield, nuclear weapons have not High-tech conventional weapons cannot replace nuclear weapons, and the nuclear demon has not gone away. We must have a clear understanding of this.

  About “Chapter 3 The Light of Technology”. The military is most sensitive to science and technology, and every major scientific and technological progress will cause profound changes in the military field. The change of war is an appearance, but the real driving force behind it is the change of technology. As the saying goes, changes in technology are the foundation, changes in war are the main body, and changes in technology lead to changes in war. Different from general military technical readings that focus on the professional introduction of the technology itself, the author focuses on a large number of high-tech technologies represented by quantum technology, artificial intelligence, bioengineering, big data, and space exploration in today’s world. The extensive use of technology in the military field will likely lead to the in-depth interpretation of the new military revolution in the world and enter a critical stage of qualitative change. It better realizes the connection between science and technology and the internal logic of war, allowing readers to understand the military under the light of science and technology. A more intuitive understanding of the fundamental changes in
  This chapter focuses on “Data Link – Driving the Transformation of “Platform-Centric Warfare” to “Cyber ​​Warfare””, “Complex Electromagnetic Environment – Information Confrontation Expands Deeply on the Invisible Battlefield”, “Digital Ghosts – The Battle for the Electromagnetic Spectrum Is Increasingly Fierce” ” Artificial Intelligence Technology – Director of Unmanned War” “Biotechnology – Is the “Doomsday War” Coming? “”Aerospace Technology–Leading Wars to the Solar System”, “Stealth Technology–Put “Invisibility Cloaks” on Combat Platforms”, “Superconducting Technology–Open the Prospect of the Material Revolution”, “Spiritual Realm Technology–Why Do You Need the Smoke on the Battlefield” ” “Micro and Nano Technology——”Micro Legion” Will Serve” are all very representative. The writing not only depicts the characteristics of the technology itself, but also outlines the possible impact on the war. It is easy to understand and easy to read. It is especially easy to attract readers. Changes in technology resonate with changes in war.
  About “Chapter 4 The Lord of Arms”. Engels said:
  Once technological progress can be used in the military and has been used in the military, they will immediately almost forcefully, and often against the will of the commander, lead to reforms and even changes in the way of fighting.
  In the era of cold weapons, weapons and equipment represented by broadswords and spears determined that only close-to-hand combat and linear combat can be used in combat; Combat came into being; as long-range precision strike weapons became the protagonists of the battlefield, non-contact combat was widely used…
  The author believes that weapons and equipment determine the combat style. With a new round of military theoretical innovation and technological progress driven by integration and catalysis, mankind will face a more powerful new wave of military revolution. Human bee swarms, unmanned ship swarms, and unmanned ant colonies flood the battlefield… The most important thing is that the combat use of each weapon may bring about changes in combat concepts, combat styles, and organizational systems. The real “king” of the future. I believe that I have read “Robot Soldiers–The Master of Intelligent Warfare”, “New Mechanism Weapons–Superconventional Lethality is Attractive”, “New Generation of Main Battle Equipment–To Lead the Trend of Future Weapons”, “New Concept Warhead–Exhibit Intelligence “Glamour”, “Gentle Weapons-Gentle Killers Are Not Gentle”, “Non-Lethal Strange Weapons-It’s Not Far to Go to the Battlefield” and other contents may completely subvert people’s perception of traditional weapons.
  About “Chapter Five Lessons from Other Mountains”. An inch is long and a ruler is short. When studying wars and opponents, we must not only look at their strengths, but also look at their weaknesses. Researching tactics based on existing equipment is the common experience of countless war practices in military history, and it is also an inevitable requirement for defeating the enemy. In high-tech warfare, we must not only pay attention to the effectiveness of new technologies and new equipment, but also pay attention to the correct and clever use of existing equipment, so that old equipment will be full of “vitality”, and we will continue to strengthen the strategy of winning with existing equipment based on existing conditions. confidence.
  This chapter starts with “Through the Shadow of War—Looking at the Development and Application of Future Weapons”, which provides a reference for us to study the changes of our opponents and scientifically grasp the development and application of foreign military weapons and equipment in the future; ——The First Cyber ​​War” and “The New Landscape of the Kosovo War—North and South Launch Information and Psychological Warfare”, a panoramic view shows that the Yugoslavia, which is at an obvious disadvantage in weaponry and equipment, has made a new record in the network battlefield and public opinion battlefield of the Kosovo War by giving full play to its own advantages. One by one classic cases; through “”Ace of the Air” Going to Maicheng-“War Eagle” Fell in the Balkans”, “The Disruption of the Myth of Sophisticated Weapons–The Secret of the U.S. Army’s Inconvenience”, “Anecdotes of War–Medium and Low-Tech Weapons We can see that although high-tech weapons have a superior side, they still have congenital deficiencies. This enlightens us that weapons are an important factor in war, but they are not the decisive factor. The decisive factor is people, not things. And “Complicated and Confused – The Gulf War” in the Veterans of the United States and Britain warns the world through a large number of historical facts that “there is never a real winner in war”, and peace is the eternal theme of mankind.
  About “Chapter Six Questions about Development”. Today, the joint promotion of a new round of scientific and technological revolution, industrial revolution and military revolution has provided support for the intelligent era of “using intelligence to control intelligence”. . These changes may seem dazzling, but there are rules to follow behind them. Fundamentally speaking, the winning mechanism of war has changed. We must look at the essence through the phenomenon, and thoroughly understand the winning mechanism of modern warfare, otherwise we can only look at the diorama and miss the point.
  In this chapter, there are five articles: “Clearing the Fog of the Principles of Information Warfare”, “Keeping the Pulse of the “Elite Soldiers” in the Information Age”, “Controlling the Trend of Information Operations and Support”, “Analyzing the Deep Transformation of War Patterns”, and “Focus on the Development Trend of Equipment Modernization”. The changes in the principles of war talked about the creation of “elite soldiers” in the information age; from the development trend of information operations and equipment support, it talked about the combat style of information-based and intelligent warfare; trend. It can be said that the perspective is broad, the analysis is thorough, and the insights are unique. It is not only a question, but also a strategic answer.
  Throughout the book, based on winning tomorrow’s war, the author looks back on history, focuses on changes in future wars, technology, and weapons, and raises the question of development while advocating drawing on historical experience, which is both strategic and speculative. At the end of the book, the author did not forget to use “Write at the end” again, calling for “closing the door of argumentation mistakes”, “seeking the “way” to win the superior with the inferior”, and “forging the self-control of the battlefield without being surprised”. Maybe you have read this book, “Although the world is safe, forgetting to fight will be in danger”, “All three armies take precepts as solidity and laziness as defeat”, “War depends on preparation, but the key is to be prepared” and other famous sayings that we are familiar with, It can make readers have a deeper understanding.

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